In one of its brilliant "I'm a Mac" ads recently, Apple lampooned the complexity of Microsoft Windows with a dizzying display of fine print that eventually filled up the screen and covered up both characters.
I thought of that ad when I saw Apple's recent announcement that it was going to make its next Mac OS X upgrade, Snow Leopard, available as a $29 upgrade. That sounds so much better than the broad range of prices that Microsoft is going to charge its customers for Windows 7 upgrades. Too bad the $29 upgrade is not that simple. In fact, according to my analysis of Apple's own sales figures, 57% of Apple's customers who bought and paid for new Macs in the past five years are ineligible for those cheap upgrades.
Something is seriously wrong in this analysis. The upgrade pricing for Windows is only temporary. It lasts two weeks (ends Jul. 11) After that the only upgrade pricing you get is if you buy a new computer between now and the release, and that computer must have Vista on it (XP isn't eligible). So for most people (those who don't buy now and don't buy a brand new computer between now and October) the price of Windows 7 will be the real upgrade price (for Vista only, most likely) for $120 (nearly as much as full price for OS X) or full price ($200). Those are just for "Home Premium" edition, which is the cheaper version of Windows.
Meanwhile, anyone who has OS X 10.5 can upgrade to Snow Leopard for about $30. It doesn't matter when you bought it. That's in addition to the same deal that Windows users get in which anyone who buys a new computer from here until the release can upgrade for free. And anyone else can buy Snow Leopard for full price, which is still cheaper than the full price of even the cheaper version of Windows.
Talk about misleading.
I'm not sure what you mean. The author uses the $120 price for Win7 even though you can get it today for $50.
As for 10.6, anyone who's already on 10.5 can upgrade for $30 but anyone on 10.4 (Tiger) or earlier has to pay full retail:
Mac OS X version 10.6 Snow Leopard will be available as an upgrade to Mac OS X version 10.5 Leopard in September 2009 through the Apple Store® (www.apple.com), Apple’s retail stores and Apple Authorized Resellers. The Snow Leopard single user license will be available for a suggested retail price of $29 (US) and the Snow Leopard Family Pack, a single household, five-user license, will be available for a suggested price of $49 (US). For Tiger® users with an Intel-based Mac, the Mac Box Set includes Mac OS X Snow Leopard, iLife® ’09 and iWork® ’09 and will be available for a suggested price of $169 (US) and a Family Pack is available for a suggested price of $229 (US).
He's doing his caluclation based on users who didn't already pay to upgrade from Tiger (based on Apple's own sales figures) which shipped up to October 2007.
The bottom line is that if you bought your Mac 2 years ago and haven't already paid to upgrade once, you'll be paying the full $169 to upgrade to 10.6. If you bought your Windows box 2 years ago (whether you're running the free SP1 upgrade or not) and are unlucky enough to not snag the upgrade at $50 you'll have to pay the full $129 retail cost for the upgrade.
As for 10.6, anyone who's already on 10.5 can upgrade for $30 but anyone on 10.4 (Tiger) or earlier has to pay full retail:
Just like Windows users.
The bottom line is that if you bought your Mac 2 years ago and haven't already paid to upgrade once, you'll be paying the full $169 to upgrade to 10.6. If you bought your Windows box 2 years ago (whether you're running the free SP1 upgrade or not) and are unlucky enough to not snag the upgrade at $50 you'll have to pay the full $129 retail cost for the upgrade.
$129 is not the "full retail cost". It's the upgrade cost, and you are ignoring the fact that a huge number of people have avoided Vista, and those people are not eligible for the upgrade price. They must pay the real full price, which is $199, not $129. OEMs have been selling PCs with XP for a long time because people don't want Vista. Someone who bought a PC 2 years ago most likely bought it with XP on it, not Vista. They will pay $199.
Also checker, if you look at the numbers Ed is slinging around you discover that the 169$US price he is using is for a boxed set that includes the most recent versions of iLife and iWork ('09). So not only is the price wrong, but the actual package he does reference represents a discount price against the individual OS and software packages 129$US+79$US+79$US. Also Ed in his analysis fails to take into account that of the 8.3 million purchasers back in '06, some portion of that has remained, some have subsequently upgraded their hardware and some have migrated to PCs. To use market sales numbers without calling out the actual population remaining against those sales is to abuse the statistics more than usual. I can appreciate the fact that Ed is a Microsoft apologist and cut him a lot of latitude in his approach, but when he starts abusing the numbers with the assumption that no one will verify them, he undermines his case.
Someone who bought a PC 2 years ago most likely bought it with XP on it, not Vista. They will pay $199.
No, actually you're wrong. Most likely they're running Vista. Today Dell sells 4 configs with XP, not counting netbooks. They sell 11 times as many with Vista. Sure, the 'XP downgrade' has made the news but very few people actually bought it. As for the pricing information, I have no idea where the author got his figures, I just looked on Apple's site: http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2009/06/08macosx.html. If you have an Apple link that says Tiger users can upgrade to 10.6 for less feel free to post it.
You're also wrong on the regular upgrade price for Windows 7 Home Premium, which is the closest feature-wise to 10.6. It's $119 and Windows XP users qualify:
I'd also be interested in any survey data that says the "vast majority" of OS X users are on Leopard instead of Tiger or older. That may in fact be the case, which means the vast majority will get the $30 10.6 update, but if it is I haven't seen any data suggesting so.
I'm sorry but I also don't buy the whole "PPC users don't really want an upgrade" argument. Not everyone can afford to buy a brand new computer every 2 years. Heck, I have old IBM desktops that were purchased 5-6 years ago that'll run Win7 just fine and will benefit from it. Sure I completely understand why Apple orphaned their old PPC users, and I'd do the same, but that doesn't mean they didn't get the royal shaft. On the plus side at least they get to buy new Macs, whch is good news for Apple's bottom line, although I'm sure that was never a factor in the decision ;)
No, actually you're wrong. Most likely they're running Vista. Today Dell sells 4 configs with XP,...
We're not talking about today. We're talking abour 2 years ago, when Dell and other OEMs fought tooth and nail with Microsoft insisting that they be allowed to continue to sell XP because that's what most customers wanted (because most computers at the time could barely handle Vista). There may be more people buying Vista now, but that was definitely not the case when Vista first came out. The fact that you can even buy XP today on a new PC is evidence of how poorly Vista is still regarded.
Sure, the 'XP downgrade' has made the news but very few people actually bought it.
That's bull@!$%#. The very reason Dell fought to offer it is because so many people wanted it that they were seriously afraid of losing business if they could only offer Vista.
If you have an Apple link that says Tiger users can upgrade to 10.6 for less feel free to post it.
I'm not talking about Tiger users. I'm pointing out that you're comparing an upgrade price for Windows 7 to a full retail price for 10.6. If you compare the full retail price of both then 10.6 comes out ahead, and if you don't use the iLife/iWork package, then it comes out almost the same price as even the upgrade price for Windows 7.
You're also wrong on the regular upgrade price for Windows 7 Home Premium, which is the closest feature-wise to 10.6. It's $119 and Windows XP users qualify:
I don't know where you're getting that, because that link says nothing about XP, and neither does the original Microsoft source. You might be talking about the $50 temporary price, but (again) that's only temporary. It's not the real price. I have seen no indication that the $119 "upgrade" price is valid for XP users.
I'm also not sure why you think "Home Premium" is closer in features to OS X. Which features are lacking? Encrypting file systems? Check. Remote desktop? Check. Location aware printing? Pretty sure that's supported. The only thing left in this comparison table is Domain Joining (and I think that can be done, but not as easily).
I'd also be interested in any survey data that says the "vast majority" of OS X users are on Leopard instead of Tiger or older.
I never said anything of the sort, but I know Apple didn't have as hard a time getting their users to upgrade as Microsoft did because Leopard could actually run on older hardware, whereas when Vista came out it had a hard time running on even some new computers.
I'm sorry but I also don't buy the whole "PPC users don't really want an upgrade" argument.
Who said that? Are you having a debate with some imaginary people here?
We're not talking about today. We're talking abour 2 years ago, when Dell and other OEMs fought tooth and nail with Microsoft insisting that they be allowed to continue to sell XP because that's what most customers wanted (because most computers at the time could barely handle Vista). There may be more people buying Vista now, but that was definitely not the case when Vista first came out.
Dell didn't start offering XP to consumers until 6 months after Vista released, and even then it was only on a small handful of low powered machines. I'm not sure HP ever did although they might have. I never saw a statement from Dell or any OEM indicating that MS was preventing them from shipping XP but if you'll send me a link to a source I'll stand corrected.
I'm not talking about Tiger users. I'm pointing out that you're comparing an upgrade price for Windows 7 to a full retail price for 10.6.
That's because I can upgrade a 5 year old XP box. You can't upgrade a 5 year old Tiger box. Did you read the premise in the original seeded article? And I guess I must apologize, I thought it was you that said:
The upgrade pricing for Windows is only temporary. It lasts two weeks (ends Jul. 11) After that the only upgrade pricing you get is if you buy a new computer between now and the release, and that computer must have Vista on it (XP isn't eligible).
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I don't know where you're getting that, because that link says nothing about XP, and neither does the original Microsoft source. You might be talking about the $50 temporary price, but (again) that's only temporary. It's not the real price. I have seen no indication that the $119 "upgrade" price is valid for XP users.
All you have to do is look at Amazon to see that XP is eligible for upgrade pricing. It says "All editions of Windows XP and Windows Vista qualify you to upgrade." But they could be wrong I suppose.
Who said that? Are you having a debate with some imaginary people here?
You see, what I did right there was respond to two (!!) posts with one. If you keep reading this thread you'll see one by Kirk Lennon. Sorry if I was unclear, I was just trying to save some time.
This isn't Dell, but it's close enough:
"From the 30th of June, we have no longer been able to ship a PC with a XP licence," said Jane Bradburn, Market Development Manager, Commercial Notebooks for HP Australia. (Source)
According to that article XP was actually outselling Vista as late as July 2008. However, technically those people bought a Vista license that they didn't even use, so maybe they qualify for an upgrade after all. I don't know. They probably never bothered to install it, though.
Microsoft will be extending the Windows XP downgrade option until 2011. While Microsoft has threatened to halt the option on numerous occasions, it has yet to set a date, write it in stone and actually make good on the promise.
Windows XP has been the corner stone for Microsoft as Windows Vista was largely rejected by businesses and consumers due to its initial rocky start. With Windows 7 right around the corner Microsoft will be looking to phase out XP but still must do so in a cautious manor.
You are in serious denial if you really think using XP instead of Vista was rare. It's been a well-known phenomenon for a long time. Multiple times Microsoft tried to stop allowing OEMs to sell licenses for XP, and they backed down every time because so many people refused to buy Vista. This is a fact which apparently you never noticed.
That's because I can upgrade a 5 year old XP box. You can't upgrade a 5 year old Tiger box. Did you read the premise in the original seeded article?
Anyone can upgrade for $50 right now until July 11. I have yet to see a single source that showed definitively that the $119 upgrade after that is applicable to XP users. Maybe it is, but even so it's barely less than the $129 full price of OS X 10.6.
And a 5 year old Tiger box can't upgrade at all, so it's a moot point. The price is irrelevant to someone who can't possibly upgrade (and that's a completely unrelated issue which you acknowledge has legitimate reasons).
I'm sorry but I also don't buy the whole "PPC users don't really want an upgrade" argument.
Snow Leopard contains almost no new user-facing features. Its two biggest features are a better ability to make use of the multi-core processors (that now ship on every single Mac) and harness the latent power of recent graphics cards for GPGPU computing. The only PowerPC systems that dual-core processors were a portion of PowerMac G5s (none of which, I believe, have graphics cards that can support the GPGPU/OpenCL stuff in Snow Leopard, though I'm not positive about this point). No other PowerPC user could even theoretically stand to benefit from Snow Leopard, even if Apple wasted their limited engineering resources on a chip they abandoned years ago.
My point here is that cutting of PowerPC users is neither capricious nor unreasonable. Moreover, it's not like they're being left to run an antiquated OS that came out in 2001 (ahem, XP). They still get to run Leopard, which is vastly more sophisticated than anything that has ever come out of Redmond.
If you purchased a new Mac before January 9, 2006, you can’t upgrade to Snow Leopard at any price. That’s because systems built before that date were based on the PowerPC processor, which is not supported by Snow Leopard. According to Apple’s own numbers, more than 8.2 million customers bought Macs in 2004 and 2005. All are now officially orphaned by Apple. And that number understates the true count. Apple didn’t complete its transition to the Intel platform until August 2006, and its likely that some older PowerPC-based machines were still in the sales channel in early 2007.
While this is more or less true ("orphaned" isn't exactly accurate), it's a complete non-issue. The whole point of Snow Leopard is that it's a performance update where lower-level aspects of the system have been fine-tuned to get the greatest performance possible on newer, Intel systems. If you're still running PowerPC, then bleeding-edge performance is obviously not at the top of your priority list.
For the vast majority of people who will be upgrading to Snow Leopard, their actual cost really is the advertised price of $29 (or, as in my case, $49 for the family pack). There's no chicanery or RDF to these prices.
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